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Date: 03 Oct 2006 05:59:58
From: Sam Wormley
Subject: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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NOVA scienceNOW
(Episode No. 3313)
7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 00:50:05
From: Eric
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Sam Wormley wrote:
> NOVA scienceNOW
> (Episode No. 3313)
> 7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>
> Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
> whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
And its headed right for your house!
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 09:31:21
From: Odd Bob
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Eric <nospam@email.com > wrote in news:VcWdnfZrXr-wi7_YnZ2dnUVZ_omdnZ2d@comcast.com:
> Sam Wormley wrote:
>
>> NOVA scienceNOW
>> (Episode No. 3313)
>> 7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>
>> Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>> whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>
> And its headed right for your house!
>
That reminds me of the time I frightened my neurotic aunt by telling her Skylab was calculated to come
down in eastern Portland (Oregon). Drove her nuts. Hey, this was well before the Internet and us
teenagers had to make our own entertainment!
When it scattered itself all over the Austrailian desert I told her the calculations were only slightly off
and it had come down just half an orbit too soon.
You should have seen her reaction when Mt. St. Helens went off. Hoo boy...
-- Evil Bob
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 09:16:21
From: Eugene Griessel
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Eric <nospam@email.com > wrote:
>Sam Wormley wrote:
>
>> NOVA scienceNOW
>> (Episode No. 3313)
>> 7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>
>> Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>> whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>
>And its headed right for your house!
If it's Apophis then its a zero on the Torino scale. No need to lose
sleep over it.
Eugene L Griessel
History: An account, mostly false, of events, mostly unimportant,
which are brought about by rulers, mostly knaves, and soldiers,
mostly fools.
- Ambrose Bierce
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Date: 02 Oct 2006 23:38:17
From: Starlord
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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They tell about it in the Nov. S&T, and I've already seen drawing of crafts
that could be used to move it in it's orbit to miss the earth in 2036
--
The Lone Sidewalk Astronomer of Rosamond
Telescope Buyers FAQ
http://home.inreach.com/starlord
Sidewalk Astronomy
www.sidewalkastronomy.info
The Church of Eternity
http://home.inreach.com/starlord/church/Eternity.html
"Sam Wormley" <swormley1@mchsi.com > wrote in message
news:y%mUg.178411$FQ1.149987@attbi_s71...
> NOVA scienceNOW
> (Episode No. 3313)
> 7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>
> Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
> whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 06:26:00
From: Chris L Peterson
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com >
wrote:
>NOVA scienceNOW
>(Episode No. 3313)
>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>
>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
asteroid".
_________________________________________________
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 13:15:09
From: Phoon Hencman
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On 2006-10-03 02:26:00 -0400, Chris L Peterson <clp@alumni.caltech.edu > said:
> On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com>
> wrote:
>
>> NOVA scienceNOW
>> (Episode No. 3313)
>> 7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>
>> Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>> whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>
> That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
> across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
> asteroid".
Well obviously they do it for ratings sake. Shamless as are all TV and
other media sources....
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 07:32:53
From: micheel
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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"Chris L Peterson" <clp@alumni.caltech.edu > wrote in message
news:jf04i29ktj5e29rro55keriucpe9n7ukjm@4ax.com...
> On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com>
> wrote:
>
>>NOVA scienceNOW
>>(Episode No. 3313)
>>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>
>>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>
> That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
> across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
> asteroid".
well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 11:10:03
From: Shawn
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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micheel wrote:
> "Chris L Peterson" <clp@alumni.caltech.edu> wrote in message
> news:jf04i29ktj5e29rro55keriucpe9n7ukjm@4ax.com...
>
>>On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com>
>>wrote:
>>
>>
>>>NOVA scienceNOW
>>>(Episode No. 3313)
>>>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>>
>>>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>>>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>>
>>That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
>>across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
>>asteroid".
>
>
>
> well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
>
>
If it's stony. If it's iron, you get lots of chunks that will survive
entry in to the atmosphere.
I like the gravity tractor idea, very elegant.
Shawn
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 18:34:41
From: micheel
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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>>
>> well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
>>
>>
> If it's stony. If it's iron, you get lots of chunks that will survive
> entry in to the atmosphere.
> I like the gravity tractor idea, very elegant.
>
>
> Shawn
Nuke the bastard! If they get it happening soon and send a couple warheads
for a blast when
it is still very distant, it would be a good test to see the the results.
Or at least put a japanese
probe together to land on it and survey it say in a couple years.
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Date: 04 Oct 2006 00:21:20
From: Trane Francks
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On 2006-10-03 16:32 +0900, micheel wrote:
> well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
Alas, one or two well-placed nukes would have a possibility of busting
up the object into smaller pieces that, suddenly, would have totally
unknown trajectories. It's just not how one would do it. Given
sufficient warning, a craft could affix itself to the object and nudge
it to a new course through persistent force.
trane
--
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Trane Francks trane@gol.com Tokyo, Japan
// Practice random kindness and senseless acts of beauty.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 09:41:38
From: Greg Crinklaw
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Trane Francks wrote:
> On 2006-10-03 16:32 +0900, micheel wrote:
>
>> well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
>
> Alas, one or two well-placed nukes would have a possibility of busting
> up the object into smaller pieces that, suddenly, would have totally
> unknown trajectories. It's just not how one would do it. Given
> sufficient warning, a craft could affix itself to the object and nudge
> it to a new course through persistent force.
You know, I'm not sure that's really true for such a small asteroid.
Aren't some of those nuclear test craters in Nevada more than 300 meters
across? With on one of the large yield bombs we have available, surely
a large fraction would be vaporized, and surely few of the remaining
bits would still be in the precise orbit that intersects the earth.
Regardless, there is no asteroid that is going to hit the earth in
2036--that shouldn't be forgotten here.
--
Greg Crinklaw
Astronomical Software Developer
Cloudcroft, New Mexico, USA (33N, 106W, 2700m)
SkyTools: http://www.skyhound.com/cs.html
Observing: http://www.skyhound.com/sh/skyhound.html
Comets: http://www.skyhound.com/sh/comets.html
To reply take out your eye
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 09:32:01
From: Brian Tung
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Greg Crinklaw wrote:
> You know, I'm not sure that's really true for such a small asteroid.
> Aren't some of those nuclear test craters in Nevada more than 300 meters
> across? With on one of the large yield bombs we have available, surely
> a large fraction would be vaporized, and surely few of the remaining
> bits would still be in the precise orbit that intersects the earth.
>
> Regardless, there is no asteroid that is going to hit the earth in
> 2036--that shouldn't be forgotten here.
Has that been determined for sure? I thought that there was still a
chance that the 2029 encounter would deflect Apophis into a somewhat
different orbit where it would strike the Earth in 2036. I think that
the Sky and Telescope article suggested the odds of this were something
like 1 in 50,000 or so. Has that estimate been overtaken by more recent
findings?
--
Brian Tung <brian@isi.edu >
The Astronomy Corner at http://astro.isi.edu/
Unofficial C5+ Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/c5plus/
The PleiadAtlas Home Page at http://astro.isi.edu/pleiadatlas/
My Own Personal FAQ (SAA) at http://astro.isi.edu/reference/faq.html
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Date: 04 Oct 2006 10:58:13
From: Trane Francks
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On 2006-10-04 01:32 +0900, Brian Tung wrote:
> Greg Crinklaw wrote:
>> Regardless, there is no asteroid that is going to hit the earth in
>> 2036--that shouldn't be forgotten here.
>
> Has that been determined for sure? I thought that there was still a
No.
> chance that the 2029 encounter would deflect Apophis into a somewhat
> different orbit where it would strike the Earth in 2036. I think that
There is a very small chance of the asteroid moving through what is
called a resonance keyhole. It's a 549-meter patch of space some 30,000
kilometers above the Earth. If 2004 MN4 passes through this resonance
keyhole in 2029, the chance of a 2036 impact greatly increases.
> the Sky and Telescope article suggested the odds of this were something
> like 1 in 50,000 or so. Has that estimate been overtaken by more recent
> findings?
The biggest problem of which I'm aware is that our current "best guess"
about where it will pass by has an error of nearly 60 km. This is enough
error for us to simply not know whether the object will pass through the
resonance keyhole (whose position is within the margin of error in the
objects trajectory).
The best way to discover whether the risk is significant is to affix a
craft to the asteroid so that we can get more precise tracking data than
currently possible. If this is to be done, Bill Cooke, an astronomer at
the Marshall Space Flight Center, stated in an Astronomy article that it
should be done before 2014.
trane
--
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// Trane Francks trane@gol.com Tokyo, Japan
// Practice random kindness and senseless acts of beauty.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 17:12:45
From: Chris L Peterson
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On Tue, 3 2006 09:32:01 -0700 (PDT), brian@isi.edu (Brian Tung)
wrote:
>Has that been determined for sure? I thought that there was still a
>chance that the 2029 encounter would deflect Apophis into a somewhat
>different orbit where it would strike the Earth in 2036. I think that
>the Sky and Telescope article suggested the odds of this were something
>like 1 in 50,000 or so. Has that estimate been overtaken by more recent
>findings?
I believe the estimate is still around 1:50,000. That's low enough to
put it at zero on the Torino scale, but the chance itself remains
greater than zero. Nevertheless, Eugene's advice not to lose sleep over
it is good <g >.
_________________________________________________
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 11:45:40
From: Greg Crinklaw
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Chris L Peterson wrote:
> On Tue, 3 2006 09:32:01 -0700 (PDT), brian@isi.edu (Brian Tung)
> wrote:
>
>> Has that been determined for sure? I thought that there was still a
>> chance that the 2029 encounter would deflect Apophis into a somewhat
>> different orbit where it would strike the Earth in 2036. I think that
>> the Sky and Telescope article suggested the odds of this were something
>> like 1 in 50,000 or so. Has that estimate been overtaken by more recent
>> findings?
>
> I believe the estimate is still around 1:50,000. That's low enough to
> put it at zero on the Torino scale, but the chance itself remains
> greater than zero. Nevertheless, Eugene's advice not to lose sleep over
> it is good <g>.
What he said.
Greg
--
Greg Crinklaw
Astronomical Software Developer
Cloudcroft, New Mexico, USA (33N, 106W, 2700m)
SkyTools: http://www.skyhound.com/cs.html
Observing: http://www.skyhound.com/sh/skyhound.html
Comets: http://www.skyhound.com/sh/comets.html
To reply take out your eye
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 07:20:35
From: Starlord
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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Nuking it will do nothing but cause it to rain down on earth as a mess of
large metors causing more damage over a wider area. The Smart this to do is
after the 2029 pass is to alter it's course so that it'll miss the earth in
2036.
--
The Lone Sidewalk Astronomer of Rosamond
Telescope Buyers FAQ
http://home.inreach.com/starlord
Sidewalk Astronomy
www.sidewalkastronomy.info
The Church of Eternity
http://home.inreach.com/starlord/church/Eternity.html
"micheel" <\\much//@telusplanet.net > wrote in message
news:FmoUg.8039$N4.4279@clgrps12...
>
> "Chris L Peterson" <clp@alumni.caltech.edu> wrote in message
> news:jf04i29ktj5e29rro55keriucpe9n7ukjm@4ax.com...
>> On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>NOVA scienceNOW
>>>(Episode No. 3313)
>>>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>>
>>>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>>>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>>
>> That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
>> across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
>> asteroid".
>
>
> well, 300 meters?? one well placed nuke or 2 should be able to handle it.
>
>
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 16:28:17
From: Chris L Peterson
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On Tue, 3 2006 07:20:35 -0700, "Starlord"
<starlord@sidewalkastronomy.info > wrote:
>Nuking it will do nothing but cause it to rain down on earth as a mess of
>large metors causing more damage over a wider area. The Smart this to do is
>after the 2029 pass is to alter it's course so that it'll miss the earth in
>2036.
While altering the trajectory is generally the best approach, it might
be perfectly reasonable to nuke an object this small. Most of the
resulting debris _would_ be deflected, and what was left would probably
be too small to do much, if any, damage.
_________________________________________________
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 06:46:41
From: Eugene Griessel
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
|
Chris L Peterson <clp@alumni.caltech.edu > wrote:
>On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com>
>wrote:
>
>>NOVA scienceNOW
>>(Episode No. 3313)
>>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>>
>>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
>
>That's a bit dramatic, isn't it? The object is only around 300 meters
>across- enough to make a local mess, for sure, but hardly a "doomsday
>asteroid".
Over a 1000 megatons though - average fatalities on the 1 to 10
million scale depending on where it hit. Which asteroid is this?
Anyone know its Torino number?
Eugene L Griessel
There are none so creative as a government statistician.
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Date: 03 Oct 2006 21:53:58
From: T. Bloompaster Weatherford
Subject: Re: Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
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On Tue, 03 2006 05:59:58 GMT, Sam Wormley <swormley1@mchsi.com >
wrote:
>NOVA scienceNOW
>(Episode No. 3313)
>7:00 PM, Tuesday, ober 3, 2006
>
>Nova Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson investigates
>whether a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036.
Will a 'doomsday asteroid' will hit the earth in 2036
---
Does a chicken have lips?
T. Bloompaster Weatherford
--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com
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