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Main
Date: 01 Jun 2007 18:26:41
From: Sam Wormley
Subject: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
By Sarah C. P. Williams
ScienceNOW Daily News
31 May 2007
Those captivated by cloudbursts will find a silver lining in global
warming. An analysis of 20 years of satellite data indicates that
rising temperatures will bring increased precipitation. The finding
challenges well-established climate models and could help researchers
more accurately predict dramatic weather events such as El Niņos.
Climatologists have long agreed that as the planet heats up, the
atmosphere will hold more water--almost 7% more for every additional
degree Celsius. Complex computer models, however, predict that a rise
in atmospheric water will only boost rainfall by 1% to 3% for every
degree the temperature rises. Researchers have assumed the
discrepancy must be because, although there is more water in the
atmosphere, the rate of its precipitation and evaporation slows down.
But these models don't have a perfect track record. When used to
simulate weather patterns over the past 2 decades, the models
underestimate rainfall and miss dramatic weather events such as the
1998 El Niņo. So physicist Frank Wentz and colleagues at Remote
Sensing Systems, a satellite analysis company in Santa Rosa,
California, ditched the models. Instead, they used real historical
data collected from six satellites to see the relations between total
atmospheric water, precipitation, evaporation, and global
temperature. It was a good match. Precipitation and evaporation
changed exactly in line with total atmospheric water--an increase of
6.5% for every degree Celsius that Earth's temperature rose. That
means evaporation and precipitation don't slow down when the
atmosphere gets wetter, the team reports online in Science.
Don't count on a drought-free future, however. The amount of annual
rainfall varies greatly around the globe, the researchers note. And
the increases due to global warming could range quite a bit. "In the
tropics, you would get as much as 65 millimeters of water, whereas in
the northern latitudes, it might only be a few millimeters," says
Wentz.
The study is the first to question the accuracy of precipitation in
current climate models, says climatologist Brian Soden of the
University of Miami in Florida. "There are dozens of different
climate models out there, and every single one of them predicts that
precipitation will increase more slowly than this study suggests," he
says. Plus, he notes, they all get the historical record wrong.
Improving these models, Soden says, could help climatologists better
predict future storms.
See: http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
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Date: 02 Jun 2007 13:24:20
From: Cyberhive
Subject: Re: Dennis Bishop update link please bookmark
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Date: 01 Jun 2007 21:23:24
From: The Ghost In The Machine
Subject: Re: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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In sci.physics, Sam Wormley
<swormley1@mchsi.com >
wrote
on Fri, 01 Jun 2007 18:26:41 GMT
<BxZ7i.81848$n_.19172@attbi_s21 >:
> Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
> http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
>
> By Sarah C. P. Williams
> ScienceNOW Daily News
> 31 May 2007
>
> Those captivated by cloudbursts will find a silver lining in global
> warming. An analysis of 20 years of satellite data indicates that
> rising temperatures will bring increased precipitation. The finding
> challenges well-established climate models and could help researchers
> more accurately predict dramatic weather events such as El Niņos.
>
> Climatologists have long agreed that as the planet heats up, the
> atmosphere will hold more water--almost 7% more for every additional
> degree Celsius. Complex computer models, however, predict that a rise
> in atmospheric water will only boost rainfall by 1% to 3% for every
> degree the temperature rises. Researchers have assumed the
> discrepancy must be because, although there is more water in the
> atmosphere, the rate of its precipitation and evaporation slows down.
[snippage]
>
> See: http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
>
OK, dumb question. Flooding?
--
#191, ewill3@earthlink.net
Insert random misquote here.
--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com
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Date: 02 Jun 2007 15:52:51
From: Davoud
Subject: Re: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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Sam Wormley:
> > See: <http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2>
The Ghost In The Machine:
> OK, dumb question. Flooding?
Not so dumb, but complex -- sufficiently so as to be unanswerable
except by guessing. The melting of ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and
the North Polar region is a greater factor than a slight increase in
rainfall. Seasonal flooding is so routine in much of SE Asia, for
example, that is taken for granted. The questions in my mind are, will
the flood season last longer and/or will the flooding be more intense.
How much do the floods need to intensify in depth and temporal extent
before the farmer in the field notices? Will anyone notice if
floodwaters deepen by a centimeter over a period of some years?
Davoud
--
usenet *at* davidillig dawt com
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Date: 01 Jun 2007 12:24:28
From: Puppet_Sock
Subject: Re: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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On Jun 1, 2:26 pm, Sam Wormley <sworml...@mchsi.com > wrote:
[snip]
> But these models don't have a perfect track record. When used to
> simulate weather patterns over the past 2 decades, the models
> underestimate rainfall and miss dramatic weather events such as the
> 1998 El Ni=F1o.
[snip]
At some point, one presumes, they are going to notice that they
are missing some important physics and go looking for it.
Any sign of that yet?
Socks
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Date: 01 Jun 2007 22:04:33
From: Sam Wormley
Subject: Re: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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Puppet_Sock wrote:
> On Jun 1, 2:26 pm, Sam Wormley <sworml...@mchsi.com> wrote:
> [snip]
>> But these models don't have a perfect track record. When used to
>> simulate weather patterns over the past 2 decades, the models
>> underestimate rainfall and miss dramatic weather events such as the
>> 1998 El Niņo.
> [snip]
>
> At some point, one presumes, they are going to notice that they
> are missing some important physics and go looking for it.
>
> Any sign of that yet?
> Socks
>
I suspect that goes on all the time... not something that makes
it into the media unless there is a lot of money awarded or a
rocket is launched.
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Date: 01 Jun 2007 11:51:16
From: Starlord
Subject: Re: Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
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No rain to be found down here in S.Calif, in fact we're just starting
heatwave that'll go pased Labor day.
--
There are those who believe that life here, began out there, far across the
universe, with tribes of humans, who may have been the forefathers of the
Egyptians, or the Toltecs, or the Mayans. Some believe that they may yet be
brothers of man, who even now fight to survive, somewhere beyond the
heavens.
The Lone Sidewalk Astronomer of Rosamond
Telescope Buyers FAQ
http://home.inreach.com/starlord
Sidewalk Astronomy
www.sidewalkastronomy.info
The Church of Eternity
http://home.inreach.com/starlord/church/Eternity.html
AD World
http://www.adworld.netfirms.com/
"Sam Wormley" <swormley1@mchsi.com > wrote in message
news:BxZ7i.81848$n_.19172@attbi_s21...
> Rain, Rain, Here to Stay
> http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
>
> By Sarah C. P. Williams
> ScienceNOW Daily News
> 31 May 2007
>
> Those captivated by cloudbursts will find a silver lining in global
> warming. An analysis of 20 years of satellite data indicates that
> rising temperatures will bring increased precipitation. The finding
> challenges well-established climate models and could help researchers
> more accurately predict dramatic weather events such as El Niņos.
>
> Climatologists have long agreed that as the planet heats up, the
> atmosphere will hold more water--almost 7% more for every additional
> degree Celsius. Complex computer models, however, predict that a rise
> in atmospheric water will only boost rainfall by 1% to 3% for every
> degree the temperature rises. Researchers have assumed the
> discrepancy must be because, although there is more water in the
> atmosphere, the rate of its precipitation and evaporation slows down.
>
> But these models don't have a perfect track record. When used to
> simulate weather patterns over the past 2 decades, the models
> underestimate rainfall and miss dramatic weather events such as the
> 1998 El Niņo. So physicist Frank Wentz and colleagues at Remote
> Sensing Systems, a satellite analysis company in Santa Rosa,
> California, ditched the models. Instead, they used real historical
> data collected from six satellites to see the relations between total
> atmospheric water, precipitation, evaporation, and global
> temperature. It was a good match. Precipitation and evaporation
> changed exactly in line with total atmospheric water--an increase of
> 6.5% for every degree Celsius that Earth's temperature rose. That
> means evaporation and precipitation don't slow down when the
> atmosphere gets wetter, the team reports online in Science.
>
> Don't count on a drought-free future, however. The amount of annual
> rainfall varies greatly around the globe, the researchers note. And
> the increases due to global warming could range quite a bit. "In the
> tropics, you would get as much as 65 millimeters of water, whereas in
> the northern latitudes, it might only be a few millimeters," says
> Wentz.
>
> The study is the first to question the accuracy of precipitation in
> current climate models, says climatologist Brian Soden of the
> University of Miami in Florida. "There are dozens of different
> climate models out there, and every single one of them predicts that
> precipitation will increase more slowly than this study suggests," he
> says. Plus, he notes, they all get the historical record wrong.
> Improving these models, Soden says, could help climatologists better
> predict future storms.
>
> See: http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2007/531/2
>
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Date: 02 Jun 2007 04:26:10
From: Anonymous
Subject: Re: Dennis Bishop update link please bookmark
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Starlord <starlord@sidewalkastronomy.info > wrote:
>Here is my update link
>
> http://tinyurl.com/ypt5fn
good link shitetard
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Date: 01 Jun 2007 19:56:01
From: %
Subject: Re: Dennis Bishop update link please bookmark
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thing
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